🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."